10/06/2009

There has been some discussion on this blog about the merits of a certain Royals pitcher. Would he really, as some suggest, have done better pitching for an AL East team than for the weak-hitting lineup fielded in Kansas City? Or would he, as others have claimed, had more wins but an inflated ERA?


To shed some light on this discussion, consider the stat known as 'adjusted ERA', or (more commonly) ERA+. Here's an explanation of the stat. Essentially, a major-league pitcher who pitches what their ballpark and league scoring environment predicts is given a score of '100'.


It turns out that since major-league baseball moved the pitching rubber to its present distance from home plate (60' 6") back in 1893, there have been 33 seasons in which a pitcher has achieved a score of '200' or higher, which would mean that they were one hundred percent better than their own league that yaer, or (gulp) more.

Five of those seasons belong to Pedro Martinez, four to Walter Johnson, three to Roger Clemens, two each to Christy Mathewson and Greg Maddux. Dutch Leonard, Bob Gibson, Addie Joss, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Lefty Grove, Cy Young, among others, one each. Essentially a list of Hall of Famers, with an occasional one-year outlier (Kevin Brown, Dolph Luque) who were stars in their day.


Oh, and one Zack Greinke, with the 29th-best season since 1893 and a score of 203. Here's his competition in the best-pitcher-in-baseball bragging rights, identifying all the big-league hurlers who had at least 25 starts and a sub-3.00 ERA in 2009 . . .

Chris Carpenter 185

Felix Hernandez 174

Tim Lincecum 173

Jair Jurrjens 160

Roy Halladay 157

Clayton Kershaw 147

Javier Vasquez 145

Jon Lester 139

Adam Wainwright 135

C.C. Sabathia 133

Justin Verlander 132

Josh Johnson 129

Matt Cain 124



As you may also know, ZG led the AL in least HR per 9 IP (0.4). But he pitched so many innings he gave up 11 dongs. Interestingly enough, all but two were solo shots. Here's the tale of the tape:

gordham beckham (solo shot)
carlos quentin (solo shot)
alex rios (solo shot)
andy marte (solo shot)
willy aybar (solo shot)
adam jones (1 on)
marlon byrd (solo shot)
a.j. pierzynski (solo shot)
mark reynolds (1 on)
lyle overbay (solo shot)
adam lind (solo shot)

I may as well bring on the really obnoxious comment now. He's going to get better, this Grienke guy. Justin Verlander will not lead the AL in strikeouts next year, nor will Roy Halladay lead in innings pitched, I reckon. He's only 25 years old, and he has less than a thousand innings in the big leagues. The odds are good that he'll be the dominant guy in the league for the next 4-5 years, Royals or no Royals. Kthnxbai.

1 comment:

梁爵 said...

2020.04.12新型冠狀病毒病全國酒店工作都停業,讓酒店上班酒店小姐生計大受影響,為了求生存,不少酒店打工小姐乾脆另闢「戰場」,跟著客人一起到KTV或是複合式釣蝦場,一來檯費可以酒店上班照算,更不用被八大行業酒店經紀抽成。畢竟酒店生活常熬夜又不規律,這樣變相坐檯,醫師表示還是有風險。穿著蕾絲小外套手臂若隱若現,將近170公分的身高搭配一雙典雅跟鞋,他是酒店PT酒店小姐Angel,在業界走跳這麼久,還是第一次遇到酒店全面停業。酒店小姐Angel:「我們現在多半就是飯局或者是伴遊啊,那甚至是可能有當秘書或是一日助理啊,就比較趨向這一塊。」有的酒店小姐轉戰一般KTV或複合式釣蝦場,一樣照算坐檯費跟客人喊價 ,不用被酒店經紀抽成。雖然Angel年過30,但身材外貌保養得宜,會說話、擅交際,比起年輕女孩略勝一籌。酒店小姐Angel:「有一些比較年輕的妹妹,她或許對一些社會經驗或者是其他比較能聊的東西,沒辦法跟客人可以很聊得下去,很聊得來這樣,那我們比較可以留心。」畢竟八大行業工作飲酒,基本上不會戴口罩,社交距離也根本無法保持,接觸的客人太複雜更難自我保護。知名八大行業酒店經紀:「(酒店小姐)她們比較常常熬夜,對生活作息比較不規則,壓力有時候會比較大一點,這個感染以後這個病就會比較難以控制。」這回叫傳播或跑小吃店等於是變相坐檯,防不勝防。